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RBA's November 2026 Decision: The Forecast and How Banks Are Acting

Less than a month after the fourth hike of 2026 took the cash rate to 4.60%, the RBA is back at the table on 3 November, and the major banks are split on what happens next. Here is exactly where each bank stands, how market pricing has shifted in days, and what lenders are already doing about it.

By Raj Bhangu|Published October 26, 2026|10 min read

Will the RBA raise interest rates again in November 2026?

It is genuinely uncertain. ANZ and Westpac both forecast a fifth 2026 hike to 4.85% at the RBA's 3 November meeting, while CBA expects a hold but flags rising hike risk, and NAB maintains that 4.60% is the cycle peak. Market-implied probability of a hike has swung sharply in recent weeks, from around 20% in early October to as high as 56% by 24 October, after RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser warned on 21 October that the inflation outlook is materially worse than the Bank had forecast.

Key Takeaways

1ANZ and Westpac forecast a fifth 2026 hike to 4.85% at the RBA's 3 November meeting; CBA expects a hold but flags hike risk; NAB maintains 4.60% as the cycle peak.
2Market-implied probability of a November hike has swung from around 20% in early October to as high as 56% by 24 October 2026.
3RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser warned on 21 October that the inflation outlook is 'materially worse' than the Bank had forecast, a key driver of the shift in pricing.
4The RBA meets on 3 November 2026, Melbourne Cup Day, with the decision due mid-afternoon as usual.
5Following September's hike, 40 lenders passed it on in full and 21 lifted fixed rates, all before any November outcome is known, lenders are not waiting to see what happens.
6The split between the big four mirrors the split seen ahead of the September decision, when forecasts also shifted materially in the final weeks before the meeting.

Where Each Major Bank Stands

The big four are evenly split heading into the 3 November decision, with two banks calling a hike and two calling a hold.

Major Bank Forecasts for 3 November 2026

Cash rate call

A genuine two-two split among the major banks is relatively unusual this late in a hiking cycle, and reflects real uncertainty about whether the inflation data justifies a fifth move.

Bank	Call	Rationale
ANZ	Hike to 4.85%	Among the first to call a fifth 2026 hike, citing persistent inflation pressure
Westpac	Hike to 4.85%	Joined ANZ's hike call, now believes a hike is more likely than not
CBA	Hold at 4.60%	Expects a near-term hold but flags risks are now tilted toward a hike
NAB	Hold, peak at 4.60%	Continues to forecast the cash rate has already reached its cycle peak

Market Pricing Has Moved Sharply in Days

Beyond the bank economist calls, financial markets price their own implied probability of a hike based on bond and swap pricing. That figure has swung dramatically in a short window.

Market-Implied Probability of a November Hike

October 2026

The jump followed RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser's 21 October comments describing the inflation outlook as materially worse than the Bank's own forecasts, language markets read as a clear signal the door to a hike remains genuinely open.

A deputy governor's words carry real weight

RBA officials choose their public language carefully, particularly in the weeks before a decision. A deputy governor explicitly flagging that the inflation outlook has worsened "materially" is a stronger signal than routine commentary, and markets responded by nearly tripling the implied odds of a hike within days.

How Lenders Are Already Acting

Lenders are not waiting for 3 November to reposition. The response to September's hike shows just how quickly and comprehensively pricing moves once a decision lands, and gives a clear preview of what to expect if November brings another increase.

Lender Response to the September 2026 Hike

Within weeks of the decision

With 375 separate rate changes applied across the market in response to a single RBA decision, a November hike would likely trigger a similarly rapid, comprehensive repricing cycle.

Fixed rates are the detail worth watching most closely. Having already cleared 6% across the board after September, any further RBA move or even a shift in rate expectations alone could push fixed pricing higher again, see our fixed rate update for where pricing sits by term.

What to Do Before 3 November

With genuine uncertainty and a real split among experts, the right response depends on your own situation more than trying to guess the outcome correctly.

Stress-test your budget at 4.85%, not just 4.60%. If you can comfortably manage a further 0.25 percentage point rise, you are prepared regardless of which way the Board goes.
Review your rate now rather than waiting for the outcome. Lender competition and your own negotiating position do not depend on the RBA decision; a rate review can happen either way.
Consider a split loan if the uncertainty is the main source of stress. Fixing a portion removes the guesswork for that part of your loan while keeping flexibility on the rest.
Do not try to time a fixed rate purely around one meeting. Fixed pricing already reflects market expectations of the outcome, both a hike and a hold are, to some extent, priced in already.

Frequently Asked Questions

The RBA's next cash rate decision is due on 3 November 2026, which falls on Melbourne Cup Day. The decision is typically announced mid-afternoon, alongside a statement explaining the Board's reasoning, with a media conference by the Governor to follow.

ANZ and Westpac believe persistent inflation pressure justifies a fifth hike to 4.85%, pointing to recent RBA commentary describing the inflation outlook as materially worse than forecast. CBA and NAB believe the cumulative effect of four hikes already delivered in 2026, combined with clear signs of slowing economic activity and cooling property markets, means the RBA can hold without risking an inflation blowout. Both positions are defensible given the mixed economic data, which is why the split exists.

On 21 October 2026, RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser warned that the inflation outlook was 'materially worse' than the Bank had previously forecast. This comment is widely credited with shifting market-implied probability of a November rate hike sharply higher, from around 20% to as high as 56% within days, as markets interpreted it as a signal the RBA was seriously considering a fifth hike.

Fixed rates already incorporate market expectations of future RBA moves, so there is limited benefit in trying to "beat" one specific meeting. If you value certainty and can secure a competitive fixed rate now, that is a reasonable decision regardless of the November outcome. If you are fixing purely to avoid one possible hike, remember that a hold is also a realistic outcome, and the fixed rate you lock in already reflects the market's blended view of both possibilities.

Based on the pattern seen throughout 2026, the big four banks typically announce their response to an RBA decision within a day or two and apply the change to new and existing variable rate customers within two to four weeks. Following the September 2026 hike, Macquarie Bank, for example, applied its variable rate increase effective from 15 October, roughly two weeks after the RBA decision.

Preparing for Either Outcome?

Whether the RBA hikes or holds on 3 November, it is worth knowing exactly where you stand. Book a free consultation and we will stress-test your situation across both scenarios.

Raj Bhangu

Principal Mortgage Broker, iSmart Finance Group

Licensed Mortgage BrokerCredit Representative 481761FBAA Member

Raj Bhangu is the principal broker at iSmart Finance Group, specialising in home loan finance and helping clients navigate RBA rate cycles and lender policy changes across Sydney and beyond.

Published: 26 Oct 2026

Sources & References

This article references information from the following authoritative sources:

The Full Effect of the RBA's Four 2026 Rate Hikes

11 min read

Fixed Home Loan Rates in Australia: The September 2026 Update

10 min read

Interest Rate Rises in 2026: The Key Mortgage Stress Concerns for Borrowers

11 min read

RBA Rate Alerts

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Our content is based on industry expertise, regulatory guidelines from ASIC and APRA, and data from the Reserve Bank of Australia. All information is current as of the publication date and subject to change.