RBA June 16 Preview: Hold Expected, But NAB and Westpac Still Tip More Hikes
Five days out from the June 16 RBA meeting, the consensus sits firmly on hold at 4.35%. But two of the four major banks are forecasting further tightening before the end of 2026. Here is where every major bank stands, what the market is pricing in, and what borrowers should do before Tuesday.
Published June 11, 2026 by Raj Bhangu
Will the RBA raise rates on June 16 2026?
No -- the consensus among major bank economists is a hold at 4.35%. CBA and ANZ forecast no further hikes. NAB and Westpac expect more hikes, but not in June. ASX futures currently imply about a 35% probability of a move this meeting.
Key Takeaways
- 1The RBA meets June 16 2026; three of four major banks forecast a hold at 4.35%.
- 2CBA and ANZ: no more hikes. NAB: one more in August to 4.60%. Westpac: two more (Aug + Sep) to 4.85%.
- 3ASX 30-day interbank futures imply approximately 35% probability of a June hike.
- 4The auction market hitting a 4-year low (51.1% nationally on June 7) gives the RBA reason to pause.
- 5April trimmed mean CPI of 3.4% remains above target and keeps the door open to future hikes.
- 6If the Westpac scenario plays out, a $600k borrower pays $249/month more than today by October.
Where Every Major Bank Stands
The chart below shows each major bank's peak rate forecast versus the current 4.35% cash rate. Green means no more hikes. Amber is one. Red is two.
Cooling auction market and budget shock to housing justifies pause. Rate cuts expected from early 2027.
Trimmed mean is still sticky but services inflation is moderating. No further hikes forecast.
Labour market remains tight. One more move needed to ensure inflation returns to target by mid-2027.
Most hawkish of the four majors. Trimmed mean will not be sustainably within target band without further tightening.
What the Market Is Pricing In
ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures imply approximately a 35% probability of a 25bp hike at the June 16 meeting -- meaning markets lean toward hold, but have not fully ruled out a move. By end of 2026 the market implies a peak of around 4.70%.
Source: ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures, June 11 2026
The Case for Holding in June
Auction market at a 4-year low
The June 7 national clearance rate fell to 51.1%, the lowest preliminary reading since the April 2020 COVID lockdowns. Sydney hit 52.9% and Melbourne 52.3%. The property market is already transmitting rate pain faster than the RBA's models suggest.
Monthly CPI printed negative in April
The ABS April monthly CPI indicator fell 0.1% seasonally adjusted. Trimmed mean eased from 3.5% to 3.4%. The disinflation trend remains intact even if the level is still above target.
Budget shock needs time to flow through
The May 12 federal budget introduced negative gearing restrictions and CGT reforms that act as an effective 90-155bp rate rise equivalent for residential property investors. The RBA has signalled it wants to see the transmission before hiking again.
The Case for Hiking Further
Trimmed mean at 3.4% -- still above target
The RBA's 2-3% target band requires sustained progress, not just direction of travel. At 3.4% trimmed mean, inflation is still 40bp above the top of the band. The RBA has been burned before by declaring victory early.
Services inflation remains sticky
Non-tradeable inflation -- rent, insurance, education, and services -- is running above 4% annually. This component does not respond quickly to rate hikes and requires prolonged restrictive policy to moderate.
Labour market still tight
Unemployment sits below 4% and wages growth, while slowing, is still running at levels inconsistent with the 2-3% inflation target over the medium term. The RBA has consistently flagged this as a key upside risk.
Three Rate Scenarios Through 2027
CBA/ANZ see the peak already in at 4.35% and cuts beginning early 2027. NAB adds one August hike. Westpac remains the outlier at 4.85% by September.
What Further Hikes Mean for Your Repayments
Monthly repayments at current variable rates (SVR ~8.9%) versus the NAB and Westpac scenarios. These figures assume a 30-year principal-and-interest loan.
| Loan size | Current 4.35% | +0.25% (NAB) | +0.50% (Westpac) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $400,000 | $3,082 | $3,165 (+$83) | $3,249 (+$167) |
| $500,000 | $3,853 | $3,956 (+$103) | $4,061 (+$208) |
| $600,000 | $4,624 | $4,748 (+$124) | $4,873 (+$249) |
| $750,000 | $5,780 | $5,935 (+$155) | $6,092 (+$312) |
| $1,000,000 | $7,706 | $7,913 (+$207) | $8,122 (+$416) |
What to Do Before June 16
Check your current rate
If you have not reviewed your rate since early 2026, your lender's loyalty tax may be costing you 0.5-0.75% more than competitors are offering. A 5-minute call could save hundreds per month.
Stress test your repayments
Run your loan through the Westpac scenario (+0.50%). If that number is uncomfortable, talk to us about fixing a portion or restructuring before the next potential move.
Do not wait if refinancing makes sense now
If refinancing saves you money today, waiting for a hold decision does not improve the outcome. The savings from a rate reduction are real regardless of what the RBA does on Tuesday.
Investors: review structure before August
If NAB or Westpac are right, August is the next risk date. Investors affected by the new negative gearing rules should understand how further rate rises interact with their post-budget position.
Upcoming RBA Decision Dates
| Date | Meeting | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| June 16 2026 | RBA Board Meeting | Hold at 4.35% (CBA, ANZ, Westpac, market lean) |
| August 11 2026 | RBA Board Meeting | NAB and Westpac: hike to 4.60% |
| September 9 2026 | RBA Board Meeting | Westpac: second hike to 4.85% |
| November 4 2026 | RBA Board Meeting | Hold or first cut discussion begins |
Frequently Asked Questions
Get Rate-Cycle Advice Before June 16
Whether the RBA holds or hikes, your rate should reflect the most competitive offer available right now. Book a free review and we will check whether refinancing or fixing makes sense for your situation.
Raj Bhangu
Principal Mortgage Broker
Raj Bhangu monitors RBA decisions and economist forecasts closely, translating rate cycle movements into practical guidance for borrowers at every stage of their property journey.
Sources & References
This article references information from the following authoritative sources: