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Property Prices August 2026: Why Falls Are Concentrated at the Top

National home values fell 0.7% in July 2026, the steepest monthly decline since December 2022. But the headline number hides something more interesting: premium properties are falling roughly three times faster than affordable ones. Here is the full breakdown, city by city and price tier by price tier.

By Raj Bhangu|Published August 25, 2026|9 min read

Key Takeaways

  • 1National home values fell 0.7% in July 2026, the steepest monthly decline since December 2022.
  • 2Sydney fell 1.4% and Melbourne fell 1.2%, the two steepest falls of any capital city.
  • 3Brisbane (-0.6%) and Adelaide (-0.2%) have now joined the downturn after two years of strong growth.
  • 4Perth was the only capital still positive in July, up just 0.1%, with momentum clearly slowing.
  • 5Upper-quartile (premium) property values fell 3.2% over the three months to July, while lower-quartile (affordable) values rose 0.3% over the same period.
  • 6The combined regional index fell 0.2% in July, its first decline since January 2023, led by Regional NSW at -0.4%.

The National Picture: Steepest Fall Since 2022

Cotality's Home Value Index recorded a 0.7% national fall in July 2026, the steepest single-month decline since December 2022. It builds on a downturn that broadened through the middle of the year, with the three forces of higher interest rates, negative gearing and CGT reform, and the SMSF residential lending ban all continuing to weigh on demand from the buyer segments that drove the 2024 to 2026 boom.

Monthly Price Change by City, July 2026

Percentage change in dwelling values, month on month

Source: Cotality Home Value Index, July 2026. Perth is the only capital city still recording a monthly gain.

The table below sets out the full picture, including the regional trend that has now turned negative for the first time in over three years.

CityJuly monthly changeNote
Sydney-1.4%Steepest fall of any capital, most investor-exposed market
Melbourne-1.2%Second-steepest fall, close behind Sydney
Brisbane-0.6%Second straight monthly fall after two years of strong growth
Adelaide-0.2%Now in mild decline after joining the downturn in July
Regional-0.2%First regional decline since January 2023, Regional NSW weakest at -0.4%
Perth+0.1%Sole capital still in positive territory, though barely

The Real Story: A Two-Tier Market

The most revealing data point in the July figures is not the national average, it is the gap between price tiers. Over the three months to July, upper-quartile (premium) property values fell 3.2% nationally. Lower-quartile (affordable) property values, over the same three months, actually rose 0.3%.

Price Change by Tier, 3 Months to July 2026

Upper quartile (premium) vs lower quartile (affordable) property values

Affordable properties have continued to grow in value even as the national average falls, a genuinely two-speed market by price point, not just by city.

This pattern is consistent with what is driving the downturn. Higher borrowing costs and the withdrawal of negative gearing benefits on established property hit expensive, investor-heavy purchases hardest, exactly where premium properties sit. Affordable properties, more often bought by owner-occupiers and first home buyers using government schemes, have been comparatively insulated. For buyers priced out of the top of the market, this divergence is itself a signal worth watching.

Sydney and Melbourne: Leading the Falls

Sydney's 1.4% July fall was the steepest of any capital, extending a decline that has been building since auction clearance rates first crashed in May. As Australia's most expensive and most investor-heavy market, Sydney is also the market most exposed to the premium-tier weakness described above. Melbourne, close behind at 1.2%, shows a similar pattern.

Both cities combine the highest average property values with the highest concentration of investor activity, which is exactly the combination that the current mix of higher rates and reduced tax concessions punishes hardest.

Brisbane and Adelaide: The Boom Cities Turn

Brisbane and Adelaide were, until recently, two of the strongest-performing markets in the country. Both have now recorded consecutive monthly falls, a sharp reversal after roughly two years of rapid, largely investor-fuelled growth. Brisbane's July fall of 0.6% and Adelaide's 0.2% are modest in isolation, but the direction of travel matters: both cities are now falling in the same month, for the first time this cycle.

Perth remains the exception, still positive at 0.1% for the month, though that is a marked slowdown from the double-digit annual growth rates Perth recorded through 2025.

Frequently Asked Questions

They have fallen in dollar terms. Cotality data shows national home values down 0.7% in July 2026 alone, the steepest monthly fall since December 2022. Sydney fell 1.4% and Melbourne 1.2% in the same month. This is an actual monthly decline in value, not just a slowdown in the rate of growth.
Premium properties are more exposed to the combination of higher interest rates and reduced negative gearing benefits on established investment property, both of which weigh heaviest on expensive, investor-heavy purchases. Affordable properties are more often bought by owner-occupiers and first home buyers, a segment that has been comparatively insulated. Over the three months to July 2026, upper-quartile values fell 3.2% while lower-quartile values rose 0.3%.
Yes, but only just. Perth recorded a 0.1% gain in July 2026, making it the only capital city still in positive monthly territory. This is a significant slowdown from the strong annual growth Perth recorded through 2025, and the trend suggests Perth is decelerating rather than reversing outright.
They have started to. The combined regional index fell 0.2% in July 2026, its first monthly decline since January 2023. Regional NSW was the weakest performer at -0.4%. This marks a broadening of the downturn beyond the capital cities into markets that had remained resilient for most of the cycle.
Affordable properties have continued to grow in value even as the national market falls, which suggests demand remains solid at that end of the market, likely supported by owner-occupiers and government home buyer schemes. Whether it is the right time to buy depends on your own borrowing capacity and timeframe. Get pre-approved at current rates before you start looking, since a 4.35% cash rate still constrains what most buyers can afford.

Buying, Selling, or Holding in This Market?

Whether you are chasing an affordable property still growing in value or negotiating on a premium home that has softened, get a clear picture of your borrowing power first.

RB

Raj Bhangu

Principal Mortgage Broker, iSmart Finance Group

Licensed Mortgage BrokerCredit Representative 481761FBAA Member

Raj Bhangu is the principal broker at iSmart Finance Group, specialising in investment property finance and helping clients navigate changing market and regulatory conditions across Sydney and beyond.

Published: 25 Aug 2026

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iSmart Finance Group ACN 608 986 554 is Credit Representative 481761 of BLSSA Pty Ltd ACN 117 651 760 (Australian Credit Licence 391237). We are members of the Finance Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA) and comply with the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009.

Our content is based on industry expertise, regulatory guidelines from ASIC and APRA, and data from the Reserve Bank of Australia. All information is current as of the publication date and subject to change.

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