Australian Property Prices 2026: Median Price Growth by Capital City

National Property Market Overview

Australia's residential property market in early 2026 continues to be defined by a pronounced two-speed dynamic. Affordable capital cities (Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane) are posting strong double-digit annual gains, while the more expensive east-coast markets of Sydney and Melbourne have shifted into low-growth territory.

The combined capitals median dwelling value reached $902,000 in January 2026, up from around $880,000 twelve months earlier. The national median dwelling value sits at approximately $810,000, reflecting the moderating influence of regional markets alongside the capital city premium.

Regional Australia has also seen steady, albeit slower, growth. The combined regional median is approximately $640,000, with lifestyle and affordability markets in south-east Queensland and western Victoria attracting buyers priced out of capital cities.

Capital City Median Prices: January 2026

The table below summarises the median dwelling values, monthly price movements, and annual change for each capital city as of January 2026, based on CoreLogic Home Value Index data.

Source: CoreLogic Home Value Index, January 2026. Median values are for all dwellings (houses and units combined).

Monthly Median Price Trends

The chart below tracks median dwelling values for each capital city on a monthly basis from February 2025 through January 2026. Sydney remains the most expensive capital by a wide margin, while Perth and Adelaide have climbed sharply throughout the period, narrowing the gap with Brisbane and Canberra.

A notable trend is the convergence of Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, and Canberra median values into a tight band between $810,000 and $878,000. This convergence reflects the "catch-up" growth in previously more affordable capitals as interstate migration and supply constraints push prices upward.

12-Month Annual Growth by City

Annual growth rates paint a clear picture of Australia's two-speed property market. Perth's 17% annual gain is more than triple the combined capitals average, while Melbourne's 0.5% growth barely keeps pace with inflation.

Perth's growth has moderated from its mid-2025 peak of over 20% but remains the standout performer. Adelaide and Brisbane have held firm above 9%, supported by strong net interstate migration flows and a persistent undersupply of listings relative to buyer demand.

Monthly Price Change Rates

Monthly change rates provide a real-time pulse on momentum. In January 2026, Perth (+0.8%) and Adelaide (+0.7%) continued to lead, while Melbourne (+0.1%) showed only marginal improvement. The combined capitals monthly gain of 0.4% equates to a roughly 4.8% annualised pace.

Melbourne's near-flat monthly performance reflects an oversupply of listings that has given buyers more negotiating power. In contrast, Perth's tight listing volumes (roughly 30% below the five-year average) continue to create upward pressure on prices.

Market Performance Rankings

The performance gap between Australia's strongest and weakest capital city markets is historically wide. Below is a summary of what is driving each tier.

Top Performers: Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane

• •Perth: Mining-sector employment, population growth, and critically low listing volumes have driven 17% annual gains. The median has risen from approximately $710,000 to $829,000 in 12 months.
• •Adelaide: Strong net interstate migration from Victoria, affordable price points relative to east-coast capitals, and a tight rental market have pushed annual growth to 12.5%.
• •Brisbane: Ongoing Olympic infrastructure investment, affordable median prices relative to Sydney, and strong population growth underpin 9.5% annual appreciation.

Lagging Markets: Melbourne, Canberra

• •Melbourne: Elevated listing volumes, land-tax policy changes deterring investors, and net interstate migration losses to Queensland and South Australia have constrained growth to just 0.5%.
• •Canberra: A public-sector hiring freeze and balanced supply-demand conditions have limited annual growth to 1.5%, though the market remains stable rather than declining.

What's Driving the Two-Speed Market?

Several structural and cyclical forces are behind the divergence in growth rates across Australian capitals.

Supply Constraints

Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane all have listing volumes well below their five-year averages, in some cases 25–35% below. New construction approvals have not kept pace with population growth, and rising build costs have delayed many development pipelines. In contrast, Melbourne's total listings sit roughly 10–15% above average, giving buyers more choice and limiting price growth.

Interstate Migration

Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia continue to be net recipients of interstate migration. Affordability remains the primary motivator: a family selling a median Melbourne house at $783,000 can purchase a larger home in Adelaide ($813,000 with more land) or Brisbane ($878,000 with subtropical lifestyle). Victoria recorded its largest net interstate migration loss on record in the year to September 2025.

RBA Rate Impact

The Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to raise the cash rate to 3.85% in February 2026, its first hike since November 2023, adds a new headwind for borrowers. Higher rates reduce maximum borrowing capacity and increase monthly repayments, which is likely to further moderate price growth in the second half of 2026, particularly in Sydney where affordability is already stretched.

Affordability Ceiling

Sydney's median dwelling value of $1,190,000 is now more than 10 times the median household income, creating a natural ceiling on price growth. First home buyers are increasingly priced out, leading many to look at regional NSW or interstate options. Perth and Adelaide, while growing rapidly, still sit in the 7–8x income range, providing more room for further appreciation before affordability constraints bite.

Outlook for 2026

The consensus among major bank economists and property research firms is that national property price growth will moderate through 2026, though outright declines are unlikely for most markets.

• •Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane: Expected to continue growing at 5–10% through 2026, down from 2025 peaks but still outperforming. Supply constraints and migration tailwinds remain intact.
• •Sydney: Forecast growth of 2–4%, driven primarily by the premium segment. The broader market is constrained by affordability and higher rates.
• •Melbourne: Flat to modest growth of 0–2%, with potential for slight declines in oversupplied pockets such as inner-city apartments and outer-suburban new estates.
• •Canberra: Stable at 1–3% growth, contingent on federal government employment policy.

The key wildcard is the RBA rate path. If inflation proves stickier than expected and further hikes materialise, growth forecasts will need to be revised downward. Conversely, a return to rate cuts in late 2026 could reignite buyer demand across all markets.

What This Means for Buyers and Investors

The two-speed market creates different opportunities depending on your strategy and risk tolerance.

First Home Buyers

If you are looking to enter the market, Perth and Adelaide still offer better value relative to income than Sydney or Melbourne, though their rapid growth is narrowing the gap. Government schemes such as the First Home Guarantee allow purchases with as little as 5% deposit. Securing pre-approval now locks in your borrowing capacity before any further rate moves.

Upgraders

Melbourne upgraders benefit from softer conditions on the buy side while still achieving reasonable sale prices for their current homes. Sydney upgraders should be mindful of extended selling timelines in the sub-$1.5 million bracket and budget for bridging finance if needed.

Investors

Yield-focused investors may find Melbourne's flat capital growth offset by improving rental yields as vacancy rates tighten. Growth-oriented investors should weigh whether Perth and Adelaide have further room to run, given affordability constraints are beginning to emerge. Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline through to 2032 provides a long-term structural growth story.

Refinancers

If your property has grown in value over the past 12 months, you may have more equity than you think. Refinancing can help you access better rates, consolidate debt, or release equity for your next purchase. With rates now at 3.85%, shopping around for a competitive rate is more important than ever.